452 Examining migration trajectories and related uncertainties from a health perspective: a conceptual review

Abstract OP 21: Refugees and Asylum Seekers 4, B308 (FCSH), September 4, 2025, 14:45 - 15:45 Background As people migrate, they may repeatedly undergo circular movements, periods of immobility, secondary migration and return as well as psychosocial changes – making migration trajectories more than a one-off linear move between two places. A defining feature of these trajectories is uncertainty, resulting from incomplete knowledge about place-based conditions and the unpredictable future. It is unclear how migration trajectories and associated uncertainties have been conceptualised operationalised in health-related research to date. Methods Following a systematic approach, we searched Medline, Embase, Web of Science and Global Index Medicus using concepts related to “migration”, “trajectories”, “uncertainties” and “health”. We extracted concept definitions (trajectories and uncertainties), operationalisations and links to health from the included papers. Results are presented narratively. A protocol was registered with PROSPERO (CRD42024579247). Results The search resulted in 3836 titles after deduplication, 66 of which were included in the review. Studies were of diverse designs and mostly focused on forced migrants, often in high income countries. Migration trajectories were often presented as linear, with most studies drawing on different phase models. Various uncertainty factors were mentioned, including general uncertainties of the migration process, social and future uncertainties. The most frequently mentioned uncertainty was connected to an insecure legal status. Related health outcomes predominantly centred around detrimental mental health effects. Conclusions The health literature on migration trajectories and related uncertainties is still at a nascent stage. While the reviewed studies illustrate the ubiquity of uncertainties in the migration context, particularly the negative impacts of an uncertain legal status on mental health, the phenomenon has not yet been theorised in a way that fully taps its potential for generating health-related knowledge. Avenues for further conceptual and empirical research are proposed.