Discursive opportunities in foreign policy—How territorial disputes drive right-wing populist support in Japan

In order to position their agenda as an alternative to the established political mainstream, right-wing populist parties need discursive opportunities. Territorial disputes provide effective discursive opportunities because international conflicts in particular not only allow respective politicians to present themselves as the voice of national interests, but also create a sense of crisis that demands an urgent and assertive response. This article examines these dynamics through the case of Japan, focusing on how the right-wing populist Japan Restoration Party (JRP) leveraged territorial conflicts as discursive opportunities through the examination of the public reception of the party. In order to extract the party’s reception from the public discourse an algorithm-based big data analysis of over 100,000 Japanese blog posts was utilized. The topic model analysis identified relevant discourses and positions within the public debate, revealing how the discourse around territorial disputes contributed to the party’s rise in 2012. The blog analysis shows how the JRP’s alliance with former Tōkyō Governor Ishihara Shintarō led to increased support from the far-right. Ishihara gained significant media attention with his proposal to purchase the contested Senkaku Islands, claimed by both Japan and China. This idea resonated widely on social networks, with supporters even raising funds to turn the purchase into reality. This strategy not only challenged the political line of established parties but also positioned the Japan Restoration Party as a key advocate for a more assertive foreign policy in the public discourse. The analysis thus illustrates how right-wing populist politicians utilize political crises and offer polarizing solutions that resonate with conservative, anti-establishment voters. The findings of this study contribute to our understanding of how populist actors leverage foreign policy crises to gain electoral traction and challenge political elites. By focusing on Japan, this research especially provides broader insights into the role of territorial disputes in shaping right-wing populism.