Genetic Algorithm-Based Series–Parallel Mode NARX Model (GABPM-NARX) for Remaining Useful Life Estimation

Remaining useful life (RUL) estimation is an integral part of prognostics and health management of engineering systems. Using RUL estimation, failures could be detected and maintained before they occur. Advancements in sensor technology permitted monitoring the health state of engineering systems producing a lot of data. This data is utilized for building data-driven RUL estimation models. Today both in practice and literature data-driven models for RUL estimation are very popular since the construction of these models usually does not require domain knowledge, it is easy to adapt existing models for different engineering systems and provide accurate estimations. Artificial Neural Networks are widely used in data-driven computing for modeling nonlinear regression and dynamic systems. Nonlinear Auto-regressive neural network with eXogenous inputs (NARX) model is used for dynamic modeling and multi-step long-term forecasting. NARX makes predictions by iteratively simulating the dynamic behavior of underlying nonlinear time series. Since the system monitoring data are dynamic nonlinear time series, this feature of NARX makes it a suitable model for RUL estimation. In this study, a genetic algorithm-based series–parallel mode NARX (GABPM-NARX) model is proposed for RUL estimation. The proposed approach is applied to the C-MAPSS dataset from the NASA data repository. The results of the analysis are satisfactory showing that the proposed GABPM-NARX model is a promising method for RUL estimation. Advancements in RUL estimation: Utilizing sensor data for predictive maintenance and failure prevention in engineering systems. Data-driven modeling: Artificial Neural Networks (ANNs) provide accurate RUL estimations without requiring domain-specific knowledge. Dynamic system forecasting: The NARX model effectively captures nonlinear time-series behaviors for long-term predictions. Proposed approach: A genetic algorithm-based series-parallel mode NARX (GABPM-NARX) model improves RUL estimation performance. Application & validation: Implementation on NASA C-MAPSS dataset demonstrates promising results for engineering system prognostics.