Trade Attitudes and Federalism: A Study of Provincial Public Opinion toward Canada–US Trade

Abstract Despite federal leadership on international trade policy, growing sub-federal involvement raises important questions about regional variation in public attitudes. This article explores whether Canadians’ trade preferences vary across provinces and are shaped by subnational contexts. Using 2022 Environics survey data and socioeconomic indicators from Statistics Canada, it tests competing post-functionalist and rationalist explanations. The results show a largely uniform support for free trade with the United States across provinces, with only Quebec showing a marginally more favorable baseline. Economic and ideological variables shape preferences in statistically significant ways but do not operate differently across regions. The findings support the rationalist framework, highlighting the role of income, education, and local trade exposure. However, the article finds little evidence of regional politicization of trade, suggesting that observed provincial trade involvement may reflect structural economic interests or institutional autonomy rather than public contestation, although recent US–Canada trade tensions may change this dynamic.