Moldova’s Economic Growth in a Post-Soviet Context

Moldova's post-Soviet transition raises the question of how institutions, trade patterns, and macroeconomic fundamentals interact to shape growth. Studies comparing Eastern Bloc peers trace Moldova's export pivot from Russia toward Romania and other EU members. Moldova's EU-oriented policies, particularly the 2016 Deep and Comprehensive Free-Trade Agreement, have accelerated regulatory harmonization and opened product markets, yet the pace remains uneven. This article applies stepwise linear regression to cross-sectional data from a sample of European countries—including former Eastern Bloc states and current EU members—to identify key predictors of real GDP per capita in 2022 and 2023. Moldova's shift in trade toward the EU is situated within this broader regional comparison. The analysis finds that corruption control has the strongest positive association with income, while Soviet-era institutional legacies and elevated government spending are linked to lower performance. Findings emphasize the centrality of governance reform in Moldova's development trajectory.