Assessing Growth Convergence in the Post-Soviet Space: A Comparative Analysis of CIS Economies, 1990–2024

The post-Soviet era did not provide equitable growth opportunities for all its constituent countries. The group of Central Asian countries has experienced slower growth than Western cohorts of ex-Soviet countries, which have grown faster over the last 35 years (1990-2024). The Central Asian countries experienced a growth shock, with negative growth rates during 1990-95, and later recovered to positive growth. The Western bloc countries also suffered a similar initial growth shock during (1990-95) but recovered on a faster growth trajectory. The Central Asian countries began with lower per capita income, a lower level of industrialization, and primary exports. The study estimated β and σ-convergence between the two cohorts and found evidence for conditional Convergence within and between the two cohorts. The study also estimates rates of conditional Convergence. The study highlights the greater potential for CAS countries to grow faster through investments in human and physical infrastructure. The study also fills a gap in the international literature on convergence studies.