Uncertainty Quantification of Single Event Noise Predictions for Conceptual Supersonic Transport Aircraft

This contribution discusses the uncertainties associated with single-event aircraft system noise as predicted with so-called Scientific simulation tools. The authors aim to highlight the inherent uncertainties of such simulations and increase awareness when analyzing these system noise prediction results. The considerations presented here are applicable to predictions with Scientific simulation tools in general but in this study are tailored to a specific case. This contribution presents 1) the authors’ application of uncertainty quantification for aircraft noise simulations, 2) the status quo of research activities, and 3) a specific application case. Compared to previous work limited to the noise prediction task, the uncertainty approach is now extended to fully incorporate the simulation of the flight trajectory. For this study, an application case that is of high priority because it supports ongoing technical discussions concerning the definition of landing and takeoff noise certification regulations for novel civil supersonic transport aircraft. The findings are compared to results from the literature. Based on the findings, initial conclusions can be derived for the potential community noise impact if these vehicles are in operation. The outcome of this single-event assessment directly affects whole fleet scenarios because they are assembled from individual events.