Evaluation of Expected Impacts and Scenarios of Adopting Fusion Energy in Saudi Arabia

ABSTRACT Fusion energy is increasingly recognized as a potential game‐changer in addressing the grand challenge of achieving deep decarbonization while ensuring long‐term energy security. Recognizing the uncertainty surrounding fusion energy's technological maturity, commercialization timelines, and cost trajectories, this study adopts an anticipatory foresight approach tailored to high‐uncertainty contexts. The research employs a mixed‐methods framework incorporating horizon scanning, expert elicitation, trend analysis, and exploratory scenario planning. These methods were selected to account for deep technological uncertainty (e.g., plasma containment breakthroughs, cost convergence, fuel supply chain development), as well as systemic uncertainties related to sociopolitical acceptance and infrastructure readiness. For the case of Saudi Arabia, three distinct scenarios—Optimistic, Moderate, and Conservative—are developed to reflect a spectrum of plausible futures. Under the Optimistic Scenario, fusion could supply 10%–15% of Saudi Arabia's electricity mix by 2045 (50–75 TWh annually). The Moderate Scenario forecasts a 5%–10% contribution by 2050 (25–50 TWh), while the Conservative case sees fusion reaching under 5% by 2060 (< 25 TWh). These projections are framed within the broader uncertainty landscape, with sensitivity analyses on cost assumptions, technological learning curves, and policy interventions. A comparative assessment of anticipatory methodologies under these uncertainty levels underscores the limitations of deterministic forecasting and the value of scenario‐based planning in guiding long‐term energy policy. While fusion's economic feasibility remains uncertain, potential cost parity with advanced nuclear fission and gas‐fired plants by mid‐century is plausible. The paper concludes with strategic policy recommendations to reduce uncertainty and accelerate fusion adoption: increasing national R&D funding, fostering international and public‐private collaborations, investing in adaptive grid infrastructure, and developing flexible regulatory frameworks.