Strategic Foresight for Emerging Defense Technologies: Impact on STI Policies and Diffusion Timelines Across Short, Medium, and Long‐Term Horizons

ABSTRACT From past to present, the defense industry has consistently driven technological innovation, acting as a catalyst for breakthroughs that extend beyond military applications. As global defense strategies increasingly rely on cutting‐edge technologies, identifying areas of investment that align with Science, Technology, and Innovation (STI) policies has become crucial. Using the Delphi method, this study gathers insights from 74 Turkish defense‐sector professionals—academics, engineers, and military officers—to evaluate 14 priority technology domains defined by the European Defense Agency taxonomy. Türkiye's short‐, medium‐, and long‐term roadmap for digital transformation emphasizes immediate‐impact areas, including cybersecurity, sensor systems, and design technologies, as well as long‐horizon priorities, including photonics, advanced materials, and propulsion systems. Cybersecurity stands out as a disruptive, high‐impact domain, reshaping both Türkiye's defense capabilities and the global security paradigm. The results function as a policy roadmap, allowing decision‐makers to reconcile near‐term readiness with long‐term strategic autonomy by aligning investments, regulatory frameworks, and innovation incentives. These technologies challenge existing norms and demand adaptive policy frameworks that can anticipate and regulate their influence on national security. The integration of such technologies into defense frameworks represents a paradigmatic shift, reshaping military strategies and global power dynamics. The findings of this study contribute to ongoing discussions about the foresight of emerging technologies and their strategic implications within the defense industry, positioning it at the forefront of global technological transformation.