Modelling and predicting the suitable habitats and potential distribution of South China sika deer (Cervus nippon kopschi)

South China sika deer ( Cervus nippon kopschi ) is an endangered species endemic to eastern and southern China. Assessing the impacts of climate change and human activities on its distribution patterns is critical for developing effective conservation strategies. In this study, we used the MaxEnt model and ArcGIS to predict the potential distribution range and spatial dynamics of the South China sika deer under four Shared Socio-economic Pathways (i.e., SSP1–2.6, SSP2–4.5, SSP3–7.0 and SSP5–8.5) for the present, 2030 s, 2050 s, and 2070 s, and identify the key environmental variables that affect the distribution. Results showed that (1) the precipitation of the coldest quarter, temperature seasonality, distance from river, and slope degree were the four most influential environmental variables, (2) most of the current suitable areas are expected to remain stable, with significant expansions under all future periods and scenarios- not only within the species' current range (from the Tianmu Mountains to the northern end of the Wuyi Mountains), but also across most area of the Jiangnan Hilly Region, (3) although the number of suitable habitat patches is likely to increase, the habitat connectivity is expected to remain low. We recommend combining the restoration of current suitable areas with the creation of ecological corridors to help the South China sika deer access new suitable habitats and enhance their resilience to climate change. Additionally, establishing a network of nature reserves or national park is also an important conservation strategy for achieving large-scale effective protection.