Do match surprises move fan token prices? Evidence from UEFA competitions

• Fan token prices drop sharply after UEFA match losses • Unexpected results amplify negative market reactions • Loss aversion outweighs surprise effects in token price dynamics We examine whether match outcomes and surprises influence the short-term pricing of football fan tokens (FFTs). Using an event study on 557 UEFA matches involving 17 clubs, we implement a novel twelve-category classification that combines expectedness (expected/unexpected), intensity (strong/weak), and outcome (win/draw/loss). We find that losses—especially unexpected ones—trigger significant negative abnormal returns, with typical declines between -2.7 % and -5.1 % on match day. In contrast, positive surprises fail to produce symmetric gains, pointing to an asymmetry consistent with loss aversion. While surprises do affect prices, the direction of the outcome (win vs. loss) has a stronger impact than the degree of surprise. Price reactions are most pronounced in high-stakes matches, such as UEFA Champions League knockouts. These findings suggest that FFT markets are driven more by sentiment than by efficient information processing. We characterize FFTs as speculative, loss-sensitive assets, and highlight implications for retail investors, clubs designing token features, and regulators concerned with hybrid financial instruments.