Lebanon’s regime resilience in the face of economic and security shocks

Crises usually serve as critical junctures for institutional reform or regime change. Yet in Lebanon, different crises have not only failed to trigger structural transformation but have also reinforced the grip of entrenched political elites. This article examines how Lebanon's regime has demonstrated resilience across a series of major crises since 2005. The analysis focuses on how external legitimation cycles and elite sequential learning enable regime adaptation across different crises. This allows for a comprehensive understanding of the regime's persistence, distinguishing between top-down elite strategies, bottom-up societal pressures, and the legitimizing role of external actors. It argues that elite survival has relied on deeply rooted patronage networks, strategic use of sectarian governance, and the ability to recalibrate power structures in response to each crisis. This article shows how crisis-enabled adaptation and external legitimation cycles offer broader insights into the durability of hybrid and sectarian regimes under conditions of protracted crises.