ConvLSTM-based tropical cyclone intensity estimation and classification using satellite imagery over the North Indian ocean

Tropical cyclones pose significant threats to coastal regions, and have a major negative influence on the environment and society. Precise cyclone identification and intensity estimation are crucial for effective early warning systems and disaster prevention. Traditional methods rely on manual interpretation and empirical models, often lacking efficiency and accuracy. This study proposes a deep learning framework that utilizes satellite image sequences for cyclone detection, classification, and intensity estimation. Unlike conventional models relying solely on spatial or manual features, the proposed hybrid architecture integrates Convolutional Neural Networks (CNNs) and ConvLSTM to learn spatiotemporal patterns jointly. Key innovations include the clustering-based cyclone region isolation method, sequence-level data augmentation, and the use of SMOTE to mitigate class imbalance. The proposed approach demonstrates substantial improvement in accuracy over baseline models, achieving 99.16% accuracy for binary classification using VGG16. An accuracy of 81.1 ± 4.33% across cyclone intensity levels, and an RMSE of 7.79 ± 1.27 knots in wind speed prediction using the ConvLSTM-based model. All models are evaluated using 5-fold cross-validation on CIMSS Tropical Data Archive and IMD Best-Track datasets. Overall, these results show an exciting potential for future use of deep learning for real time forecasting and early warning systems. Future work will also look to improve or increase model generalization, either through using ensemble learning, or potentially more complex architectures and larger datasets.