Integrating ensemble modeling into pre-emptive classical biological control: Assessing climate suitability and niche overlap of two natural enemies against Anoplophora chinensis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) in China

• The distribution ranges of the two natural enemies and A. chinensis exhibit significant spatial overlap in China. • Climate change has reduced the suitable ranges of two natural enemies while expanding the distribution range of A. chinensis . • The distribution patterns of A. chinensis and its natural enemies are driven by multiple factors. • The ecological niches of the two natural enemies are highly similar to that of A. chinensis . Anoplophora chinensis (Coleoptera: Cerambycidae) is an economically important wood-boring pest in China, posing serious threats to forest ecosystems, with its potential range expansion further intensified by climate change. To address the ecological and economic threats posed by A. chinensis , this study combined ecological niche modeling and species distribution modeling (SDM) to evaluate the biocontrol potential of two key natural enemies, Dastarcus helophoroides (Coleoptera: Bothrideridae) and Sclerodermus sichuanensis (Hymenoptera: Bethylidae). Meanwhile, niche overlap analysis was performed to quantify the ecological niche similarity between these natural enemies and the target pest. The results demonstrate that under the current climate, eastern, northern, and central China are key regions where the suitable habitats of both natural enemies ( D. helophoroides and S. sichuanensis ) exhibit significant spatial overlap with the distribution range of A. chinensis . However, climate change indicates a potential contraction in the suitable ranges of both natural enemies, in contrast to an expansion in the distribution of A. chinensis . Further analysis identified that bioclimate, vegetation indices, topography, solar radiation, and human activities are the critical environmental factors jointly driving the distribution patterns of A. chinensis and its natural enemies. Additionally, niche overlap analysis indicated that the ecological niches of both natural enemies are highly similar to that of A. chinensis . This study provides new insights into optimizing natural enemy release areas and enhancing classical biological control efficiency, while providing scientific guidance for integrated forest pest management and ecosystem conservation.