Inpatient to Outpatient Shifts in Surgical Care: Persistence of COVID-19 Era Changes and Socioeconomic Variations

The COVID-19 pandemic disrupted surgical care delivery, yet the extent to which shifts from inpatient to outpatient settings have persisted remains unclear. Using medical claims data from Independence Blue Cross (2018-2022), we examined changes in surgery settings across 102 procedures before the pandemic and during the 2 years following the suspension of elective surgeries. After 2 years, inpatient volumes decreased for 9 of the 20 most common pre-pandemic inpatient procedures, with corresponding increases in outpatient utilization. Hip and knee replacements experienced the most pronounced shifts, with inpatient shares falling by more than 40 percentage points. Patients from lower-income census tracts saw greater declines in overall procedure volumes (-6.0%) compared to those from higher-income areas (+5.2%). Total allowed amounts decreased for procedures with outpatient migration, while out-of-pocket costs remained stable. These findings suggest durable, post-pandemic shifts in surgical care delivery patterns, with potential implications for access, costs, and equity.