Too Dry to Move: Perceived Weather Shocks and Temporary Migration among Ugandan Smallholders

Abstract In the absence of reliable and timely weather information, most small-scale farmers in developing countries make cropping and other agricultural decisions based on their perceptions of weather conditions. We take the case of Uganda to investigate the relationship between perceived weather shocks and temporary migration among smallholders. Using longitudinal data from a nationally representative survey – Living Standard Measurement Study-Integrated Survey in Agriculture (LSMS-ISA) –, we examine whether perceived weather shocks at the household level affect the migration of household members. Using panel data estimators, we show a significant negative relationship between perceived weather shocks and temporary migration among agricultural households, and the relationship is more pronounced for smallholders. Experiencing weather shocks is associated with a 1.7% reduction in the probability of migration. We find that perceived weather shocks are negatively correlated with temporary labor migration and migration for educational purposes, but not with migration for other economic reasons. These results are confirmed by focused group interviews with 24 rural residents representing all four regions of Uganda. We identify reduced agricultural productivity and low farm revenue as potential channels for the negative relationship between perceived weather shocks and migration.