Migration Responses to the COVID‐19 Pandemic: A New York City Case Study of Legacy Routes, Migration Histories and Class Difference

ABSTRACT The global COVID‐19 pandemic dramatically altered virtually all aspects of social and political life. In particular, stay‐at‐home orders and social distancing mandates reduced the desirability of densely populated urban centers and sparked urban out‐migration. Migration responses to such exogenous shocks, however, vary across socioeconomically differentiated communities and are shaped by established migration channels. This paper builds a case study of out‐migration from New York City drawing on home locations recorded for individual mobile devices to examine two research questions. (1) How do out‐migration patterns from New York City during the COVID‐19 pandemic vary between class‐differentiated neighborhoods? (2) To what extent do previously established migration routes shape migration patterns during the pandemic? The results demonstrate that those leaving affluent neighborhoods moved further distances and were more likely to be directed toward high amenity recreation destinations. In addition, the analysis reveals that past migration behavior greatly increases the likelihood of outmigration during the pandemic, and those leaving affluent origins followed previously established outmigration pathways. In contrast, those leaving low‐income neighborhoods are more likely to return to origins with established histories of sending migrants to New York City. Combined, these results demonstrate the ways class context shaped migration responses to the COVID‐19 pandemic and how past migration behavior at both individual and aggregate scales influences both the likelihood of moving and choice of destination.