Essential livelihood capitals for effective climate adaptation in Pakistan's irrigated agriculture: Insights from PLS-SEM and NCA

<h2>Abstract</h2> Adaptation strategies of farmers depend on climatic factors and various livelihood capitals, such as natural, social, financial, human, and physical capital. Based on the Sustainable Livelihood Framework (SLF), the present study explores the necessary and sufficient conditions for successful adaptation. Employing Partial Least Square Structural Equation Modeling (PLS-SEM) and Necessary Condition Analysis (NCA), we analyzed primary data from 800 farmers in the irrigated Indus plains in Pakistan. Our field survey, conducted from December 2021 to February 2022, utilized a structured questionnaire with a five-point Likert scale. The PLS-SEM results show that natural (β = 0.345) and social capital (β = 0.283) are the strongest positive predictors of adaptation, followed by human, and physical capital, while financial capital exhibits a negative relationship (β = −0.185). The NCA further indicates that all predictors play a necessary role in shaping adaptation outcomes. Natural and social capital emerge as critical bottlenecks even for lower adaptation levels. At the basic adaptation stage, minimum thresholds of human (1.555), natural (1.809), and social (1.621) capital must be reached, while higher adaptation targets require additional capital inputs. These insights are vital for highlighting the essential nature of all forms of livelihood capital and policy interventions to promote adaptation measures in Pakistan's irrigated agricultural regions.