Dynamic analysis and simulation of the economic viability of sustainable aviation fuel blending in airlines: Emphasizing China's pilot policy and future development potential

The transition to Sustainable Aviation Fuel (SAF) is a critical strategy for aligning China's aviation sector with global climate commitments. This study develops an integrated economic–environmental–energy complex-system framework for airlines and employs a system dynamics approach to simulate the economic viability and development potential of China's current SAF pilot policy, using Beijing as a case study. The model further explores optimized policy pathways. Key findings indicate that: (1) Airlines' economic contribution is highly vulnerable to external shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic; (2) While the existing 1 % SAF blending pilot policy is economically viable in the short term due to its limited adverse impact, its long-term sustainability is questionable as economic contribution begins to decline markedly after a post-pandemic inflection point; (3) Increasing the SAF blending ratio gradually erodes airline profits, as cost pressures from SAF adoption outweigh potential benefits like carbon emission reductions and partial cost pass-through to passengers, which is influenced by price elasticity of demand; (4) While a basic subsidy for SAF use is marginally effective, only when subsidies cover 70 % of SAF costs do airlines begin to recover profitability with SAF blending, albeit with diminishing returns over time; (5) An additional subsidy tied to emission reduction efficiency significantly enhances airlines' economic contribution, with more pronounced long-term benefits. Based on these results, the study proposes an integrated and flexible policy combining dual-subsidy and production-side cost-reduction measures to balance short-term transition needs with long-term fiscal sustainability. By integrating multidisciplinary perspectives and adopting a complex-system framework, this study offers theoretical and practical innovations—providing evidence-based insights for policymakers and airline managers in designing effective SAF transition strategies. • Analyzed the economic viability of airlines' SAF transition from a complex systems perspective. • Developed an airlines' economy-environment-energy (3 E) complex-system framework. • Constructed an SD model to integrate the dynamic feedback mechanisms within the 3 E system. • Focused on China's 1 % SAF blending pilot policy and the potential for further scaling up. • Developed a SAF “basic subsidy + additional subsidy' policy and identified key ratios.