From hydro nation to solar giant: New Zealand’s renewable build-out and hydrogen export scenarios

Abstract The transition to a decarbonised energy system presents a significant challenge for New Zealand, particularly as it strives to meet its net-zero emissions target by 2050. Existing peer-reviewed studies on New Zealand’s energy transition are scarce and lack the necessary spatial and temporal resolution to accurately model the integration of renewable energy, green hydrogen production, and storage needs. To address these gaps, this study introduces REMix-NZ, a high-resolution energy system optimisation model tailored to New Zealand. REMix-NZ captures hourly time steps, geographic specificity, and diverse energy technologies to analyse the country’s future energy pathways, including power system expansion and green hydrogen export scenarios. Through the use of REMix-NZ and scenario analysis, it is possible to evaluate future energy capacities, storage requirements, and the impact of hydrogen exports for the milestone years 2030 and 2050. Results show that New Zealand needs to increase its installed power generation capacity by up to 13 times by 2050, with solar photovoltaics providing over 65% of electricity. Additionally, approximately 650 GWh of new storage capacity, mostly batteries and hydrogen storage, will be required. Hydrogen exports to the Pacific Islands in the form of e-fuels are feasible with an additional capacity of around 11%, demonstrating an opportunity for international energy trade.