Beliefs about EU 2030 climate commitments across public, expert, and policy audiences

Abstract The European Union (EU) has adopted ambitious climate policies to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by 55% by 2030. While technical, economic, and political feasibility have been widely analyzed, far less is known about a critical enabling factor: whether key societal actors perceive these targets as credible and achievable. In this study, we elicit probabilistic beliefs about future EU emission reductions from a sample of citizens designed to be representative across 12 EU member states and compare them with the expectations of climate policymakers and experts. Our findings reveal that all three groups anticipate substantial progress compared to current levels. At the same time, citizens are more skeptical about achieving the target and substantially more uncertain than elites, expecting, on average, a 43% reduction by 2030 compared to the EU’s 55% reference. Moreover, we identify a notable misalignment: elites tend to systematically underestimate public skepticism. This gap underscores the need to improve policy communication, directly address citizens’ concerns, and foster a shared understanding to enhance the perceived credibility and political sustainability of the EU’s climate goals.