Modeling the Suitable Habitat of Silver Pheasant (Lophura nycthemera) in China Under Climate and Land Cover Change

The Silver pheasant, a species in the Phasianidae family, is a widely distributed ground-dwelling bird in southern China and a national Class II protected animal. Global climate change and land use and land cover change are recognized as major drivers of wildlife habitat loss and shift, especially for species with low dispersal ability, like the Silver pheasant. However, no studies have assessed the influence of climate change and land-cover change on suitable habitat at the regional scale. In this study, we aim to assess the combined effects of climate change and land cover change on the habitat of the Silver pheasant. We used an ensemble species distribution model to predict habitat suitability for the Silver pheasant under the current scenario and three shared socioeconomic pathways (SSPs) across two time periods (2041–2070, 2071–2100). The results demonstrate that the ensemble model outperforms individual models in predicting suitable habitat for the Silver pheasant. The ensemble model achieved an area under the receiver’s operating curve (AUC) of 0.90, a true skill statistic (TSS) of 0.61, and a Boyce index of 0.96, indicating excellent predictive performance. Currently, suitable habitat for the Silver pheasant in China, covering 4.33 × 105 km2, primarily exists in eight provinces (Sichuan, Yunan, Jiangxi, Fujian, Guangdong, Guangxi, Zhejiang, and Hunan). Land cover emerged as the most influential variable (43%), followed by annual precipitation amount (36%), elevation (9%), and slope (6%). Silver pheasant is projected to experience large habitat expansion (24.24% to 63.08%) depending on different scenarios and time. The centroid of suitable habitat is expected to shift northeastward, but with short distances (<39 km). Our results provide accurate predictions of the distribution patterns of the Silver pheasant habitat in China under current and future environmental change scenarios, which is the fundamental basis for scientific-based management and conservation decisions at the national level.