Potential distribution of Aedes vittatus as an invasive species in North America

The recent detection of populations of the mosquito Aedes vittatus in the Dominican Republic and Cuba has raised concerns over its potential for broader invasion in the Western Hemisphere, and particularly on the North American mainland. This species has been associated with the maintenance and transfer of yellow fever, Zika, chikungunya, and dengue viruses on its native distributional area. A previous study identified parts of North America with environments apparently suitable for the species, but different modeling approaches can give different results. Using models calibrated across the region historically accessible to the species, we re-examined the distributional potential of this species. Our models identified areas with year-round environmental suitability for this species along the southern coasts of the US, Mexico, Caribbean islands, and Central America. These environmentally suitable areas coincide with those for other Aedes species and overlap with urban settings, potentially placing large human populations at increased risk in case of successful establishment and invasion by this species. Targeting entomological surveillance in these and nearby areas is important for early detection to avoid establishment of populations of this species.