Forecasting Divergence: Climate-Driven Habitat Shifts in North American Odonates Depend on Functional Groups

Climate change is expected to have significant yet distinct impacts on arthropods. Studying the species distribution of odonates, which are considered a model taxon for studying climate change and a flagship group for assessing ecosystem health, can reveal potential future patterns of geographic change. My study predicts the impacts of different climate change scenarios on the future habitat and distribution of odonates. I used MaxEnt to construct species distribution models (SDMs) for 30 North American odonate species across seven functional groups, categorized based on functional traits about each genus’s life history, dispersal, morphology, and ecology. Each model was applied to three future years and three different Shared Socio-economic Pathways (SSPs). My results show that odonates will experience increasing overall habitat suitability and increasing range size with shifts northward; however, the total suitable habitat will shrink into smaller, geographically separated pockets. While most functional groups will follow the aforementioned trends, Libellula will experience a decrease in range size, and Aeshna will move the furthest north while experiencing the greatest increase in overall habitat suitability and range size. Overall, SSP5 will result in increased variability among functional groups in their habitat and distribution. This study has implications for understanding invertebrate responses to global change and may refocus conservation efforts on species with specific functional traits. The functional approach used here may be further applicable to other organisms and regions.