The Impact of Energy Consumption Structure Transformation on Urban Green Development Efficiency: Considering the Threshold Effect of Industrial Digitalization

Energy consumption structure transformation (ECST) is essential to decrease pollutant emissions and realize green development. By constructing fixed effects, spatial Durbin, and threshold models, this paper adopts the panel data of 13 cities in the Beijing–Tianjin–Hebei (BTH) urban agglomeration to investigate the impact and spatial spillover effect of ECST on urban green development efficiency (GDE). The study also reveals the moderating effect of industrial digitization level (IDL) on the main effect and the varying trend of effect intensity across different threshold intervals. This study represents the first comprehensive investigation into the impact of energy consumption structure transformation on urban green development efficiency, broadening the research perspective on energy consumption structure. The innovative incorporation of spatial dimensions and industrial digitization threshold effects provides theoretical support and practical guidance for regional collaborative development and precise policy regulation. We found the following: (1) ECST can enhance BTH’s urban GDE; (2) The effect of ECST on BTH’s urban GDE shows a U-shaped relationship of first inhibition and then enhancement; (3) ECST has a spatial spillover effect and significantly contributes to enhancing BTH’s urban GDE; and (4) IDL can significantly increase BTH’s urban GDE and has the moderating effect of strengthening ECST for increasing urban GDE. As IDL increases, its moderating effect on the main effect displays a steady and gradual decreasing trend.