Psychosocial Risks and the Economic Burden of Work-Related Mental Disorders: Evidence from Brazilian Social Security Data (2008–2023)

Mental and behavioral disorders are an increasing source of social security expenditures in Brazil, reflecting the burden of psychosocial risks on work and productivity. This study analyzes administrative data from the National Social Security Institute from 2008 to 2023 to estimate the economic impact of benefits granted for disorders classified under ICD-10 Chapter V. Monetary values were adjusted to constant 2023 BRL, and the dataset was aggregated by year, sex, benefit type, and diagnosis. The results reveal a steady rise in costs, averaging BRL 30.6 million annually. Depressive episodes (F32) and anxiety disorders (F41) accounted for the highest incidence of benefits, while schizophrenia (F20-F29), and organic mental disorders (F00-F09) presented higher mean costs per benefit and greater participation of pensions in total expenditures. Gender differences emerged, with women predominating in depressive and anxiety disorders and men in substance-use disorders, associated with higher average benefit values. Interrupted Time Series regressions indicated structural shifts coinciding with eSocial implementation in 2018 and the COVID-19 pandemic in 2020, although coefficients were not statistically significant. Simulations suggested that modest changes in incidence and cost per benefit could markedly affect expenditures, underscoring the relevance of prevention, early intervention, and return-to-work strategies.