Modeling the Effects of Climate Change on Potato Production in Myanmar Using DSSAT

Climate change significantly impacts crop yields, necessitating an evaluation of its effects and the development of adaptation strategies for future potato production. This study utilized the SUBSTOR-Potato model from the DSSAT software version 4.8 and daily weather data from LARS.WG to simulate potato production under three climate change scenarios (ssps 126, 245, and 585) from 2025 to 2087 in Southern Shan State, Myanmar. High-emission scenarios are associated with extreme weather, characterized by higher temperatures and variable precipitation. The results indicated that yields would be lowest under the ssp585 scenario, with around a 25% difference between ssp126 and ssp585. Adaptation strategies, such as delaying planting dates, positively impacted yields, while early planting resulted in lower outcomes. Extending the crop cycle by adjusting harvest times helped early-planted potatoes achieve yields similar to optimally timed ones. However, increasing fertilizer use did not significantly enhance yields under climate change conditions. The study emphasizes the importance of selecting cultivars, as heat-resistant varieties struggled in lower emission scenarios. This study provides comprehensive insights into climate change impacts on potato cultivation in Southern Shan State and offers practical, cost-effective adaptation strategies applicable to similar rainfed potato systems across Southeast Asia.