Spatiotemporal Coupling and Simulation Prediction of Socioecological Systems in the Qilian Mountain Life Community

The socioecological system (SES) of the Qilian Mountains community—mountains, water, forests, fields, lakes, grasslands, and sands—faces considerable challenges from climate change and anthropogenic pressures. Here, we aimed to examine the coupled coordination relationships within the Qilian Mountains community. Using a comprehensive evaluation index system for the socioeconomic components of the life community, we analyzed the spatiotemporal evolution of the coupled coordination degree (CCD) from 2000 to 2023, identified key hindering factors, and forecasted future trends based on a grey prediction model. The overall CCD achieved a historic leap from near-disharmony to sound coordination. The findings reveal the following: (1) The overall CCD achieved a historic leap from near-disharmony to sound coordination from 0.340 to 0.523, indicating a transition into a synergistic development phase, though with persistent spatial disparities. (2) System coordination is primarily constrained by water, farmland, and grassland subsystems, with water supply–demand imbalance being the foremost regional obstacle. In the Hexi Oasis area, this manifests as a sharp contradiction between farmland expansion and agricultural water demand. In the Qinghai region, it is deeply intertwined with topography, water yield modulus, and the distribution of forested and aquatic areas. (3) GM(1,1) projections suggest a continued upward trajectory for CCD, yet also underscore the complexity and long-term nature of coordinated development. This study established a framework for socioecological system research in arid and vulnerable regions, with the conclusions providing a reference for optimizing national ecological security barrier construction and regional high-quality coordinated development.