Asylum-seekers at the extremes

Abstract This article conducts a first-hand study on forecasting asylum-seekers’ applications across seven major host countries, i.e. the USA, Germany, France, Italy, Spain, Austria, and Greece by 2027. Poisson regression is used for flow forecasting and Extreme Value Theory for the maximum monthly number of applications. As for the latter, we first employ a static version of the Peaks-over-Threshold approach, before modelling the possible non-stationarity of the exceedances via a Generalized Pareto Distribution with time-varying parameters. Overall, the findings are in line with one another and can provide a useful road map to policymakers.