Climatic and nutrient drivers affect long-term phytoplankton temporal trends in coastal lagoons

Understanding how climate influences phytoplankton dynamics is crucial for anticipating temporal trends and cascading consequences on ecosystem functioning under climate change. This study explores long-term dynamics in contrasted Mediterranean lagoons and investigates the effects of climatic (air temperature, rainfall, wind speed) and nutrient (inorganic nutrient concentrations) drivers on phytoplankton chlorophyll a, abundances, and pigment composition. 17 years of summer monitoring were analyzed using univariate trend tests and multivariate approaches to highlight changes and to disentangle the contributions of abiotic factors to phytoplankton variability. Our results revealed contrasts among lagoons in physicochemical conditions and phytoplankton community, which strongly structured their temporal trends. Climatic drivers significantly influenced phytoplankton, but their importance was context-dependent. In nutrient-enriched systems, phytoplankton dynamics were primarily controlled by inorganic nutrient concentrations, while climatic effects were weak by comparison. Conversely, in nutrient-poor systems, climatic signals became more visible and influential: wind events were associated with higher chlorophyll a, warmer conditions with increases in phycoerythrin-rich picocyanobacteria, and rainfall with higher picoeukaryote abundances, potentially through indirect effects on water column stability and nutrient and light availability. However, under nutrient limitation, abundances remained low and dominated by small cells, suggesting that nutrient control exerts the strongest influence on phytoplankton, which may explain why nutrient control tends to mask diffuse climatic signals. Yet, climate change modulates physicochemical patterns and may progressively shape lagoon functioning. This study emphasizes the need to account for lagoon features and vulnerabilities, and supports adaptive and site-specific management strategies to safeguard coastal lagoons under future changes.