Unit Flyaway Cost Estimation Using Fuzzy Logic and Comparison with Multiple Regression

The aircraft unit flyaway cost is one of the important factors in classifying the fighter jet aircraft’s merits. This study estimates the aircraft unit flyaway cost using fuzzy logic and logarithmic multiple regression analysis. In both methods, the aircraft’s maximum takeoff weight and generation are considered as input variables, and the aircraft unit flyaway cost is considered as an output variable. For the 15 sample United-States-built fighter jets under consideration in this paper, the results show that the fuzzy expert system produces an average error of about 9.7%, which is more accurate than the logarithmic multiple regression model that results in about 16.9% average error. Moreover, the largest deviation in estimating the unit flyaway cost belongs to the F-22, which can stem from the low production quantity of this aircraft in comparison with other assessed aircraft. Taking into account the production quantity can significantly reduce the average error in both the fuzzy expert system and the multiple regression model.