Global Mapping of Population Exposure to Upstream Gas Flaring Using Integrated VIIRS Nightfire and GHSL Data, 2016–2023, with Projections to 2030

Gas flaring from upstream oil and gas production remains a significant source of air pollution and toxic emissions, with major implications for human health and climate. However, the number of people living near flaring has not been quantified globally. This study presents the first worldwide, settlement-scale assessment of populations living within 1 km and 3 km of active upstream flare sites between 2016 and 2023, with projections to 2030. Using the VIIRS Nightfire satellite product, which provides global detections of high-temperature combustion sources, and the Global Human Settlement Layer (GHSL) population and settlement data, we developed a transparent and reproducible geospatial workflow to compute proximity-based exposure indicators by buffering flare locations and intersecting them with population rasters The analysis provides consistent estimates across five settlement categories: rural, peri-urban/suburban, semi-dense urban, dense urban, and urban centres. The VIIRS-based flaring time series combined with GHSL projections allows us to estimate how many people are likely to live near upstream flares under current flaring patterns by 2030. Results show that exposure is concentrated in a few oil-producing countries. Nigeria remains the most affected, with over 100,000 urban residents exposed in 2023. India and Pakistan dominate peri-urban and semi-urban exposures, while Indonesia and Iraq persist as multi-settlement hotspots. Although moderate declines are observed in China and Iran, little progress is evident in Nigeria, Mexico, and Indonesia. Projections for 2030 suggest exposure will increase substantially, driven by population growth and urban expansion, with about 2.7 million people living within 1 km and 14.8 million within 3 km of flaring sites. The findings establish the first globally consistent baseline for population exposure to gas flaring, supporting the monitoring and mitigation objectives of the Zero Routine Flaring by 2030 initiative.