Pathways Toward Carbon Peaking and Their Impacts on Industrial Structure in Hebei Province

Since 2017, China’s carbon emissions have exceeded 10 billion tons. Hebei Province is one of the country’s major heavy-industrial regions, accounting for over 9 percent of the national total carbon emissions. Achieving carbon peaking and neutrality in Hebei is therefore vital to realizing China’s overall dual carbon goals. This study examines the spatiotemporal evolution of Hebei’s carbon emissions from four perspectives: general characteristics, energy structure, industrial structure, and urban emission patterns. Six key socioeconomic factors—population, GDP per capita, urbanization rate, share of secondary industry, installed capacity of thermal power generation, and energy intensity—were selected to project emission trends under baseline scenario, high-mitigation scenario, and low-mitigation scenario. The results show that Hebei’s carbon emissions are expected to peak in 2027 at 1.011 billion tons under the baseline scenario, in 2024 at 0.987 billion tons under the high-mitigation scenario, and in 2029 at 1.037 billion tons under the low-mitigation scenario, followed by a slight decline. Considering the province’s industrial composition and development trends, the baseline and low-mitigation pathways are more feasible. Controlling the expansion of energy-intensive industries, particularly ferrous-metal smelting and electricity and heat production, will be critical for achieving Hebei’s carbon-peaking target.