Deep learning predicts real-world electric vehicle direct current charging profiles and durations

Accurate prediction of electric vehicle charging profiles and durations is critical for adoption and optimising infrastructure. Direct current fast charging presents complex behaviours shaped by many factors. This work introduces a deep learning framework trained on 909,135 real-world sessions, capable of predicting charging profiles and durations from minimal input with uncertainty estimates. The model initiates predictions from a single point on the power and state-of-charge profile and incrementally refines them as new observations arrive, enabling real-time updates. The model generalises across vehicle types and charging scenarios. It achieves 90% accuracy in predicting charging duration from a single point, and 95% accuracy with an absolute error under one minute using six points within five minutes. This work shows that using readily available input data at charge time enables accurate prediction of charging behaviour and offers a practical, scalable solution for deployment, energy planning, and infrastructure reliability.

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Publication Details

Journal
Nature Communications
Published
2025-12-05
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1038/s41467-025-65970-y
Citations
1
Primary Topic
Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
0.73
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article

Deep learning predicts real-world electric vehicle direct current charging profiles and durations

Matthew D. Piggott, Barbara H. Ross, Robert Doel, Mingrui Zhang et al.
1 citations
Nature Communications
Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
0.73
article

Deep learning predicts real-world electric vehicle direct current charging profiles and durations

Matthew D. Piggott, Barbara H. Ross, Robert Doel, Mingrui Zhang, Siyi Li
article en
1 citations

Abstract

Accurate prediction of electric vehicle charging profiles and durations is critical for adoption and optimising infrastructure. Direct current fast charging presents complex behaviours shaped by many factors. This work introduces a deep learning framework trained on 909,135 real-world sessions, capable of predicting charging profiles and durations from minimal input with uncertainty estimates. The model initiates predictions from a single point on the power and state-of-charge profile and incrementally refines them as new observations arrive, enabling real-time updates. The model generalises across vehicle types and charging scenarios. It achieves 90% accuracy in predicting charging duration from a single point, and 95% accuracy with an absolute error under one minute using six points within five minutes. This work shows that using readily available input data at charge time enables accurate prediction of charging behaviour and offers a practical, scalable solution for deployment, energy planning, and infrastructure reliability.

Nature CommunicationsVol. 16(1)
Shell (United Kingdom) (GB), Imperial College London (GB)
Openalex Percentile: Top 21%
Electric Vehicles and Infrastructure
0.73
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