Identifying Environmental Constraints on Pinus brutia Regeneration Using Remote Sensing: Toward a Screening Framework for Sustainable Forest Management

Regeneration of Pinus brutia (Turkish red pine) after clear-cutting is showing failures in some low-elevation Mediterranean stands, raising questions about long-used silvicultural prescriptions. Because site limitations arise from the combined effects of climate, terrain, and surface thermal conditions that vary over short distances, diagnosing where problems may occur is challenging at operational scales. In this study, we first evaluate the study area (Antalya, Türkiye, 0–400 m elevation band) using open, long-term climatic indicators, along with terrain and surface thermal remote sensing variables, to describe recent environmental conditions relevant to germination and early seedling survival. We then build a transparent environmental-analog screening product that summarizes the degraded reference site as an environmental signature and computes pixel-wise similarity across the landscape at 100 m resolution. The resulting map reports three actionable tiers (≥95th, 90–95th, 85–90th percentiles), delineating compact clusters of very-high analogs surrounded by broader high/elevated belts. Interpreted strictly as a screening layer (not a predictive model), it supports compartment-scale triage: ≥95th areas are first candidates for field checks and adjusted prescriptions, while lower tiers guide targeted site preparation and monitoring. The novelty and importance are practical: widely available Earth observation data are converted into a reproducible, auditable tool that reduces dependence on complex predictive models and large calibration samples, while still requiring careful local interpretation and ground-truthing to inform P. brutia regeneration planning.