Carbon emission forecasting in the Yangtze river middle reaches under dual carbon goals with multiple drivers

Amidst the increasing urgency of global climate change, achieving carbon neutrality has become a critical objective for rapidly developing economies like China. This study presents an innovative carbon emission forecasting framework for the Yangtze River Middle Reaches-comprising Hubei, Hunan, and Jiangxi provinces-by integrating an extended STIRPAT model with partial least squares (PLS) regression. Distinct from existing provincial-level research, our approach incorporates a broader set of socio-economic and environmental drivers, utilizes variable importance analysis, and employs scenario-based projections to systematically compare emission trajectories and driving mechanisms across multiple provinces. By simulating carbon emission pathways from 2001 to 2021 and projecting future trends to 2080 under three differentiated scenarios, the study reveals pronounced regional heterogeneity in emission peaks, neutrality timelines, and driver effects. Results indicate that while all three provinces are likely to achieve peak emissions around 2030, the path to carbon neutrality by 2060 remains highly challenging due to persistent technological and structural constraints, particularly in provinces with slower industrial transformation. The findings underscore the necessity of region-specific, adaptive mitigation strategies-balancing economic growth, industrial upgrading, and energy structure optimization-to ensure practical progress toward China's dual-carbon goals. This work not only advances carbon forecasting methodology by quantifying the interactive effects of multiple drivers at a subnational scale, but also offers empirical evidence to inform targeted, differentiated policy interventions.