Assessing the success of a horizon scanning approach in predicting invasive non‐native species arrival

Abstract Despite increasing awareness of invasive non‐native species (INNS) and enhanced biosecurity controls in many countries, INNS are still arriving and establishing in new destinations, remaining a globally acknowledged threat to native biodiversity. Preventing the introduction of INNS, as opposed to controlling them once they have arrived, is recognised as the most effective approach to their management. Horizon scanning represents one of the key tools to identify high‐risk INNS that have yet to arrive within a region and has been applied in many contexts around the world, but to date there have been no studies that systematically assess the effectiveness of this approach. Here, we revisit the horizon scan for Great Britain conducted in 2013 that assessed the likelihood of high‐risk INNS arriving within the next 10 years, establishing and having an impact on biodiversity and ecosystems. We evaluated the success of this exercise in predicting arrival of these species within the subsequent 10 years. Ninety‐two species were shortlisted in the 2013 horizon scan. In total, 31 of the 92 species identified in the 2013 horizon scan had arrived by 2023. We found that 12 of the top 20 species had arrived within 10 years. In predicting arrival, there was a significant effect of species having arrived previously to Great Britain, and the number of countries in Western Europe and Baltic countries in which an INNS was found prior to 2013. Policy implications : We conclude that horizon scanning provides a rapid, affordable and successful mechanism to predict the arrival of high‐risk INNS. We highlight the importance of citizen science, including biological recording, and of local expertise for detecting and documenting arrival of INNS. We discuss knowledge gaps that could help inform and improve future horizon scanning. In addition, we recommend regularly repeating horizon scanning exercises to support biosecurity and awareness raising for INNS.

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Publication Details

Journal
Journal of Applied Ecology
Published
2025-12-05
DOI
https://doi.org/10.1111/1365-2664.70217
Citations
2
Primary Topic
Species Distribution and Climate Change
Type
article
Field-Weighted Citation Impact
3.68

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article

Assessing the success of a horizon scanning approach in predicting invasive non‐native species arrival

Jack Sewell, Stephanie Rorke, Elena Tricarico, Christine A. Maggs et al.
2 citations
Journal of Applied Ecology
Species Distribution and Climate Change
3.68
article

Assessing the success of a horizon scanning approach in predicting invasive non‐native species arrival

Jack Sewell, Stephanie Rorke, Elena Tricarico, Christine A. Maggs, Kevin J. Walker, Peter Brown, Martin C. Harvey, Colin Harrower, Hannah J. Tidbury, J. Robert Britton, Tomos Siôn Jones, Björn C. Beckmann, Michelle C. Jackson, Alison M. Dunn, Juliet A. Brodie, Jim Foster, Graham Smith, P. A. Stroh, Christine A. Wood, Tim Adriaens, Aileen C. Mill, Richard Shaw, Louisa E. Wood, David C. Aldridge, Elisa Paganini, Katharina Dehnen‐Schmutz, Karsten Schönrogge, Helen Elizabeth Roy, Debbie Murphy, Jeanne Vallet, Wolfgang Rabitsch, Paul F. Clark, Gabrielle Martin, Fiona Mathews, Paul Stebbing, Ben A. Woodcock, Oliver L. Pescott, Robin Payne, Jodey Peyton, Trevor Renals, Alan J. A. Stewart, Imogen C. N. Cavadino, David G. Noble
article en
2 citations

Abstract

Abstract Despite increasing awareness of invasive non‐native species (INNS) and enhanced biosecurity controls in many countries, INNS are still arriving and establishing in new destinations, remaining a globally acknowledged threat to native biodiversity. Preventing the introduction of INNS, as opposed to controlling them once they have arrived, is recognised as the most effective approach to their management. Horizon scanning represents one of the key tools to identify high‐risk INNS that have yet to arrive within a region and has been applied in many contexts around the world, but to date there have been no studies that systematically assess the effectiveness of this approach. Here, we revisit the horizon scan for Great Britain conducted in 2013 that assessed the likelihood of high‐risk INNS arriving within the next 10 years, establishing and having an impact on biodiversity and ecosystems. We evaluated the success of this exercise in predicting arrival of these species within the subsequent 10 years. Ninety‐two species were shortlisted in the 2013 horizon scan. In total, 31 of the 92 species identified in the 2013 horizon scan had arrived by 2023. We found that 12 of the top 20 species had arrived within 10 years. In predicting arrival, there was a significant effect of species having arrived previously to Great Britain, and the number of countries in Western Europe and Baltic countries in which an INNS was found prior to 2013. Policy implications : We conclude that horizon scanning provides a rapid, affordable and successful mechanism to predict the arrival of high‐risk INNS. We highlight the importance of citizen science, including biological recording, and of local expertise for detecting and documenting arrival of INNS. We discuss knowledge gaps that could help inform and improve future horizon scanning. In addition, we recommend regularly repeating horizon scanning exercises to support biosecurity and awareness raising for INNS.

Journal of Applied EcologyVol. 63(1)
Marine Biological Association of the United Kingdom (GB), University of Stirling (GB), Queen's University Belfast (GB), Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique (FR), CAB International (GB), University of Leeds (GB), International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis (AT), National Wildlife Federation (US), Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (GB), Natural History Museum (GB), University of Fribourg (CH), Royal Horticultural Society (GB), University of Sussex (GB), Université Fédérale de Toulouse Midi-Pyrénées (FR), Environment Agency (GB), Durham University (GB), Research Institute for Nature and Forest (BE), University of Exeter (GB), Wildlife Trusts (GB), Botanical Society of Britain and Ireland (GB), Arts University Bournemouth (GB), University of Oxford (GB), UK Centre for Ecology & Hydrology (GB), Environment Agency Austria (AT), Muséum national d'Histoire naturelle (FR), Toulouse School of Management Research (FR), Conservation Leadership Programme (GB), Institut de Recherche pour le Développement (FR), University of Florence (IT), Anglia Ruskin University (GB), Coventry University (GB), Newcastle University (GB), British Trust for Ornithology (GB), Bournemouth University (GB)
Bournemouth University, Agentschap voor Natuur en Bos, Anglia Ruskin University, Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science, University of Cambridge, University of Exeter, University of Oxford, Newcastle University, University of Leeds, University of Sussex, Queen's University Belfast, Coventry University, Durham University, Botanical Society of Britain and Ireland, University of Stirling, Queen's University, Nordisk Ministerråd, Università degli Studi di Firenze, Centre National de la Recherche Scientifique, Université de Fribourg, Muséum National d'Histoire Naturelle, International Institute for Applied Systems Analysis, Directorate for Biological Sciences, School of Natural and Environmental Sciences, Newcastle University, Centre for Ecology and Hydrology
Openalex Percentile: Top 6%
Species Distribution and Climate Change
3.68
DOIOpen Access PDFOpenAlex
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