Effect Conflict and Conflict-Related Sexual Violence on First-Order Marital and Premarital Adolescent Fertility in the Democratic Republic of the Congo

The conflicts in the Democratic Republic of the Congo (DRC) have resulted in significant conflict-related sexual violence (CRSV) against girls under 18. This study examines the impact of conflict and CRSV on first-order marital and non-marital adolescent fertility in the DRC. We utilized data from the 2007 Demographic and Health Surveys, geo-referenced conflict data (UCDP-GED), and CRSV data (GEO-SVAC). Using the Mundlak approach, we first implemented a binary multilevel discrete-time event history model to assess how exposure to conflict and CRSV impacted the timing of first adolescent conception, both marital and premarital. Second, we treated first marital and premarital conceptions as two competing events. We employed a multinomial multilevel discrete-time event history model to examine the impact of exposure to conflict and CRSV on each type of event. Our findings reveal that (1) exposure to CRSV increased the risk of premarital adolescent conception; (2) conflict exposure reduced the likelihood of marital adolescent conception; (3) CRSV delayed adolescent conception within marriage. The first two findings align with existing literature, while the third offers new insights into how CRSV may delay the timing of first adolescent pregnancy, including through spousal rejection following extramarital sexual violence and resilience among survivors. These results underscore the need for (1) improved access to contraceptives for girls in conflict zones, (2) strengthened women’s empowerment programs, and (3) lasting peace in the DRC to enhance adolescent health outcomes.