Grid planning insights from near-optimal generation portfolios amidst large-load growth

Rapid load growth attributed to data centers, cryptocurrency mining, and industrial processes will require a substantial expansion of existing generation and transmission infrastructure in the U.S. Using the SWITCH capacity expansion model, we develop a model of the Texas Interconnection to explore the potential impacts of these emerging demands under different growth scenarios. By implementing a modeling-to-generate-alternatives formulation, we investigate a diverse set of resource portfolios in the near-optimal solution space to identify possible strategies for meeting this rapid demand growth and assessing the overall impact on the grid. Our near-optimal solution space exploration reveals consistently dominant technologies in the cost-optimal solution (solar, onshore wind, natural-gas-fired generation), which can also be meaningfully supplemented by emerging technologies like offshore wind and geothermal energy. This approach to assessing the impacts of demand growth can help infrastructure planners identify a variety of solutions suitable to their local systems.