Progression of disease within 36 months (POD36) of starting first-line targeted therapy independently predicts poor overall survival in patients with chronic lymphocytic leukemia (CLL)

Abstract BACKGROUND Early disease progression within 24 months following chemoimmunotherapy (CIT) is an established adverse prognostic factor for overall survival (OS) in patients (pts) with indolent non-Hodgkin lymphomas. Initially reported in pts with follicular lymphoma, progression of disease (PD) within 24 months in pts with CLL treated with CIT (occurring in ~1-out-of-4 pts) is also associated with inferior OS. The prognostic utility of early event status in pts with CLL treated with targeted therapies is unknown. Recently, we reported worse than expected outcomes with BCL2 inhibitor (BCL2i) treatments in an international cohort of pts with covalent BTK inhibitor (BTKi)-resistant, CIT-naïve CLL. We hypothesize that early disease progression on first-line (1L) targeted agent treatment will identify additional pts with high-risk disease beyond conventional prognostics in the current era. METHODS We identified pts in the Mayo Clinic CLL Database with the following 1L treatments a) BTKi (+/- anti-CD20 monoclonal antibody [CD20mAb]); b) BCL2i + CD20mAb; c) BTKi + BCL2i +/- CD20mAb. PD was defined by a) new or progressive lymphadenopathy or splenomegaly; and/or b) ≥ 50% increase from nadir absolute lymphocyte count (ALC) with persistent (>2 months), and otherwise unexplained ALC ≥ 10x109/L; and/or c) Richter transformation. Logistic regression model evaluated association between clinical factors and POD36 status. OS in pts with PD within 36 months of 1L start (POD36) was evaluated and compared to those without early PD (non-POD36) with analyses: a) starting from time of PD (POD36) and starting from 3 years after 1L initiation (non-POD36); and b) Kaplan-Meier landmark analysis amongst pts alive 3 years post 1L initiation. Cox regression analyses compared a) OS from POD36 by groups and b) OS from 1L treatment with POD36 as a time-dependent covariate. RESULTS A total of 787 pts with CLL initiated 1L targeted therapy (n=538 [68%] BTKi +/- CD20mAb; n=151 [19%] BCL2i + CD20mAb; n=98 [13%] BTKi + BCL2i +/- CD20mAb. The median age at 1L start was 67 years (range 26-92 years), and 67% of pts were male. Among pts with complete CLL-IPI data (n=519), 44% and 15% had high- and very high-risk CLL-IPI risk scores, respectively. Specific pre-1L treatment disease characteristics included TP53 disruption (del17p or TP53 mutation) in 120/639 (19%), del11q in 103/634 (16%), unmutated IGHV in 406/591 (69%), complex karyotype (≥3 clonal structural or numerical abnormalities on karyotype) in 70/273 (26%), and positive CD49d expression in 229/449 (46%). The median pre-treatment beta-2-microglobulin level was 3.3 mcg/mL (range 1.2-24.4 mcg/mL). The median follow-up from 1L start was 50 months (95% CI 46-54 months). 496 pts met criteria for defining POD36 status; 72 (15%) had PD, and 424 did not. TP53 disruption (OR 2.9; 95% CI 1.5-5.7, P=0.001) was associated with POD36 on univariate analysis; complex karyotype, unmutated IGHV status, elevated serum lactate dehydrogenase level, age, sex, and inclusion of CD20mAb were not associated with POD36 status. Median OS from the time of determination of POD36 status was not reached. OS was significantly shorter after POD36 compared to non-POD36 pts (HR 3.5; 95%CI 2.1-6.0, P<0.0001), with 4-year OS estimates of 65% and 88%, respectively. When assessed by landmark analysis at the 3-year timepoint following 1L start (n=50 POD36), OS was also shorter in pts with POD36 compared to non-POD36 pts (HR 3.5; 95%CI 1.8-6.8, P=0.0002). In the overall cohort (n=787), when evaluating OS from 1L treatment with POD36 as a time-dependent covariate, POD36 status was associated with an increased risk of death (HR 4.3; 95% CI 2.6-7.1, P<0.0001) on univariable analysis; and remained an independent marker of shorter OS in multivariable analyses after adjusting for age, sex, TP53 disruption status, and IGHV status (HR 4.2; 95% CI 2.1-8.4, P<0.0001). CONCLUSIONMost pts achieved durable CLL disease control with 1L targeted treatments, and early PD occurs much less frequently than previously reported with CIT. However, among pts who receive 1L targeted therapies for CLL, PD within 36 months is associated with a ~4-fold higher risk of death. These results, if validated in larger data sets, will provide a practical measure for identifying a high-risk subgroup of pts in need of novel treatment strategies in future trials.