Burden of Hodgkin lymphoma from 1990 to 2021 and modelled projection to 2050

Abstract Background: Hodgkin lymphoma (HL) represents a significant malignancy, yet comprehensive data on its epidemiological evolution are lacking. This study quantifies the global, regional, and national burden of HL from 1990 to 2021 and projects trends to 2050. Methods: Using population-based registry data from the 2021 Global Burden of Disease (GBD) study (204 countries/territories), we computed age-standardized rates (ASRs) per 100,000 for incidence, prevalence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs). Bayesian meta-regression tools modeled 2050 projections. Results: In 2021, an estimated 65182.01 incident cases of HL were recorded globally. The highest ASR per 100,000 were observed for prevalence (4.42, 95% CI, 3.75-5.09), mortality (0.34, 95% CI: 0.25-0.43), DALYs (14.82, 95% CI:10.43-18.96), and incidence (0.79, 95% CI: 0.64-0.94). Males exhibited significantly higher disease burden compared to females. While absolute incident cases increased by 19.23% (54,671 in 1990 → 65,182 in 2021), ASIR declined by 0.1% annually. This divergence was primarily driven by population growth and aging, offset by epidemiological improvements reflected in falling ASIR, ASMR, and DALY rates. Health inequality analysis revealed a disproportionately high burden in countries with high sociodemographic index (SDI) levels. Frontier analysis identified nations with substantial potential to reduce the burden of Hodgkin lymphoma. By 2050, incidence rates attributable to Hodgkin lymphoma are projected to increase.Interpretation: These findings indicate that males and people in high SDI countries will likely face an increasing Hodgkin lymphoma burden. There is an urgent need for effective prevention and management strategies targeting high-risk groups. Keywords: Hodgkin lymphoma, GBD, mortality, DALYs, ASR, prevalence