Spatiotemporal variation, multi-scenario simulation, and driving factors analysis of habitat quality based on FLUS-InVEST and Geodetector models for Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei, China

Evaluating the influence that alterations in land use/land cover (LULC) have on habitat quality and landscape patterns is essential to promote regional sustainable development. This research simulates the LULC trends of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in 2035 and 2050 under three scenarios and subsequently evaluates changes in habitat quality using the FLUS-InVEST model. Additionally, Geodetector is employed to pinpoint the principal causes influencing fluctuations in habitat quality. The following results are obtained: (1) During 2000-2023, substantial alterations occurred in LULC, with habitat quality declining by 0.041. The transition to ecological land improved habitat quality, while the transformation of cultivated land to construction land posed a severe threat to habitat quality. (2) Under Business as Usual (BAU) scenario, the average habitat quality is projected to be 0.341 in 2035 and 0.337 in 2050, with degraded areas becoming increasingly fragmented and continuously expanding. Under Cultivated Land Priority (CLP) scenario, the average habitat quality decreases by 0.003 from 2023 to 2050. This scenario slows urban expansion, and the intensity of habitat degradation is reduced compared with the BAU scenario. Conversely, Ecological Priority (EP) scenario shows an increase in habitat quality with lower landscape fragmentation. (3) DEM is the predominant determinant of habitat quality spatial heterogeneity, with an explanatory power of 0.324. Notably, the interaction between DEM and NDVI demonstrates the strongest explanatory power (q = 0.497). These findings provide a reliable basis for scientifically formulating future LULC policies and accurately implementing ecological protection strategies.