Vulnerability Assessment of Karst Spring Failure and Water Quality Changes Induced by Earthquakes

Earthquakes are among the most catastrophic natural disasters, primarily due to their immediate potential to cause loss of human life. However, their impact extends beyond the initial seismic event, particularly in karst systems, where groundwater resources are highly sensitive to geodynamic disturbances. The abundance of karst springs within these terrains makes them critical water sources for many communities, yet earthquakes can significantly disrupt their discharge patterns and degrade water quality. This study examines the vulnerability of karst springs to seismic activity, focusing on two case studies that illustrate distinct earthquake-induced hydrogeological effects. The first case investigates the temporary failure of the Opačac Spring near Imotski, Croatia, following the Mw 3.7 earthquake on 7 September 2018. This spring experienced a complete cessation of discharge for four days, as recorded by continuous hydrograph monitoring, before recovering due to the release of accumulated groundwater behind a temporarily blocked conduit. The second case explores the impact of seismic activity on water quality, focusing on the sensitive freshwater lens of the karstic Island of Vis in response to the Mw 6.1 earthquake on 22 April 2022, near Stolac, Bosnia and Herzegovina. Despite the epicenter being over 150 km away, water quality monitoring revealed notable changes, emphasizing the influence of seismic disturbances on fragile groundwater systems in carbonate island environments. Using a multidisciplinary approach, integrating seismic data analysis with hydrological and hydrogeological observations, this study investigates the mechanisms through which earthquakes alter karst water systems. A proposed vulnerability assessment framework is introduced, aiming to correlate earthquake intensity, proximity, and hydrogeological response to better predict karst spring failure and water quality degradation. This model provides valuable insights for disaster preparedness, water resource management, and risk mitigation strategies in karst terrains, highlighting the necessity of incorporating karst hydrogeology into regional earthquake response planning.