Cumulative and Lagged Drought Effects Shape Start and End of Season on the Mongolian Plateau

Dryland phenology is tightly constrained by water availability, yet the temporal depth of drought influence remains poorly resolved at regional scales. We analyzed the start and end of season across the Mongolian Plateau using 500 m MODIS kNDVI for 2001–2020 and a phenology-anchored framework that linked multi-timescale SPEI directly to the month of each phenological event. By varying accumulation windows and testing month-wise lags up to twelve months, we mapped pixel-level optimal timescales and sensitivities. Phenology exhibits a clear north–south gradient with weak long-term shifts relative to large interannual variability. Drought acts through two pathways. Multi-month winter–spring moisture deficits delay spring green-up, with the strongest SOS sensitivity to antecedent drought about six to nine months prior. Summer–autumn dryness advances dormancy, and EOS is governed mainly by near-term moisture over the previous one to two months. Responses differ among ecoregions, with deserts and desert steppes the most sensitive and forests and alpine meadows less responsive. These asymmetric timescales imply that prolonged deficits can postpone spring emergence into the following year, whereas short deficits truncate the current season, offsetting warming-driven extensions of growing-season length. Incorporating phenology-anchored, multi-timescale drought indicators can improve model forecasts of dryland carbon–water dynamics and inform monitoring and adaptation in the most water-limited ecoregions.