Roma Migration Intentions: An Aspirations–Capabilities Approach

ABSTRACT The Roma represent the largest ethnic minority in Europe, with Romania hosting the largest share. A significant proportion of this population seeks to improve their living conditions through migration. Drawing on the aspirations–capabilities framework, this study examines the micro‐, meso‐, and macro‐level factors influencing Romanian Roma's intentions to migrate abroad. Using data from the 2021 EU Fundamental Rights Agency (FRA) survey on Roma, we apply binary logistic regression to analyze the determinants of future migration intentions. Our findings show that migration intentions among disadvantaged groups are shaped not only by negative experiences in their home countries such as harassment and social exclusion, but also by relative forms of empowerment, including higher levels of education, economic independence through self‐employment, and increased social interaction with dissimilar others. Younger Roma are more likely to consider leaving Romania compared to those aged 45 and older. Similarly, individuals with more than 13 years of education are more likely to intend to migrate than those with no formal education. Employment situation also plays a role: Roma engaged in self‐employment or in education or training are more likely to express migration intentions than those in paid employment. In addition, intense feelings of social exclusion and experiences of hate‐motivated harassment are positively associated with the intention to migrate. Conversely, higher levels of institutional trust and stronger social ties homophily are associated with lower the likelihood of migration plans. These findings underscore the need for nuanced policy interventions that go beyond addressing material deprivation of marginalized groups.