Analyzing rental time and pricing trends before, during, and after the COVID-19 pandemic

This study examines the dynamics of rental time on market (TOM) for residential properties in Szczecin, Poland, from 2016 to 2023. Using data from the regional MLS system administered by the West Pomeranian Association of Realtors (ZSPON), the analysis spans four distinct periods: pre-pandemic (2016–2019), pandemic onset (2020), transitional recovery (2021), and post-pandemic normalization (2022–2023). The study investigates two primary hypotheses: (H1) TOM differs significantly across pandemic phases; and (H2) TOM is correlated with rental price levels. Employing Kaplan-Meier survival analysis and General Linear Modeling (GLM), the results confirm both hypotheses. TOM increased sharply during early pandemic phases and decreased in subsequent years, though not returning to pre-pandemic levels. Additionally, listings with mid-range prices consistently showed the shortest TOM, while overpriced and underpriced listings were associated with longer market exposure. The findings contribute to the understanding of how external shocks, such as the COVID-19 pandemic, induce both temporary and persistent changes in rental market behavior. The study also offers practical implications for real estate professionals, suggesting that TOM-based modeling can enhance pricing and listing strategies, particularly during periods of uncertainty or recovery.