THE DYNAMICS OF VOTER TRANSFER BETWEEN ROUNDS OF THE 2025 PRESIDENTIAL ELECTION IN POLAND

In 2025, Poland held presidential elections. These were crucial for all parties. A victory of the government’s candidate, Rafał Trzaskowski, would allow for the continuation of the government's proposed reforms, whereas a victory of the opposition’s candidate (PiS) could block the implementation of the government's proposed reforms. The aim of this research is to analyze the electorate flow between the first and second round of the presidential election and to identify the impact of turnout on the final election result. Data for the analysis of voter transfer were obtained from the National Electoral Commission and public opinion polls. The research utilizes analysis of spatial variation in results, supported by analyses of changes in voting preferences based on polls. The analyses show that the mobilization of voters opposing Rafał Trzaskowski, as well as support from right -wing competitors who did not advance to the second round were key to Karol Nawrocki's victory.