Effect of climate variability on rubber production in Thailand

Rising greenhouse gas emissions have intensified global warming and climate change, leading to higher temperatures and irregular rainfall that directly affect agricultural productivity-the sector most vulnerable to climate impacts (Trinh, 2018).Thailand is among the most climate-vulnerable nations (Germanwatch, 2021).Over the past four decades , temperatures have risen substantially, with the northern, northeastern, central, and eastern regions experiencing more rapid warming than the southern region, although there have been no substantial differences in rainfall changes.Current climate variability threatens Thailand's rain-fed agriculture, especially major crops such as rubber, rice, maize, sugarcane, and cassava, with each requiring specific water and temperature conditions that may shift under changing climates (Sdoodee, 2013).Research studies on climate change and rubber production have been reported from different countries, including Nigeria (Mesike and Esekhade, 2014), India (Raj and Dey, 2004), Indonesia (Prasada et al., 2021), and China (Shao-jun et al., 2020).However, published research in Thailand remains limited, with most studies concentrating on the southern region.For example, Thaiburi et al., (2021), using 1989-2019 panel data, reported that both rainfall and temperature had negatively affected yields.Makkaew and Sdoodee (2015) reported that increased rainfall days in Songkhla province had reduced rubber tapping opportunities.Thaiburi (2022) analyzed data from 2010 to 2020 across five southern provinces of Thailand, further confirming that temperature, rainfall, and their variability substantially influenced rubber production.Limsakul and Paengkaew (2014) demonstrated that rubber yield in southern coastal provinces was closely linked to ENSO, with higher yields during El Nio and lower yields during La Nia, reflecting the importance of rainfall intensity and frequency.The present study investigated the influence of climatic factors on rubber yields across the three key rubber-cultivation regions (southern, eastern, northeastern) of Thailand.Given the growing disruptions to rainfall patterns caused by climate change, the analysis focused on rainfall variability, with temperature included as a control variable, under the hypothesis that rainfall exerts a stronger influence on rubber yields than temperature.The study's findings should provide valuable insights for policymakers in formulating strategies to support farmers and improve water management practices, thereby enhancing the resilience of Thailand's rubber sector to climate variability.