Crop vulnerability and climate adaptation to moisture stress in the semi-arid zones of Senegal

Abiotic stressors have a significant impact on crop productivity, with moisture stress being especially important. This study investigates the consequent shifts in sorghum yields in Senegal, using NASA Power and CHIRPS data from 1990 to 2024. Matam, Mbane, Gamadji Sarre, and Yang-Yang were identified as hotspots by the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI) with low rainfall, exhibiting only 12–15% rainy days. Precipitation was categorized into Above-Normal (AN) or Below-Normal (BN) using the Rainfall Anomaly Index (RAI; AN if RAI ≥ 0, BN if RAI < 0). Sorghum yields were notably lower during BN years. APSIM model was used to assess the impact of fertilizer doses (40 kg ha-1 and 60 kg ha-1) and sowing dates on yield variations. The results indicate minimal yield fluctuation with increased fertilizer within recommended limits and highlight that reliable rainfall forecasts (80% or greater accuracy) can significantly influence farm-level decision-making. These findings emphasize the crucial role of rainfall variability in agricultural planning and climate adaptation strategies.