Change in the productive potential of rainfed maize under climate change scenarios in the Lerma–Toluca Sub-basin, Mexico

Climate change represents a challenge for agricultural production in Mexico, so this research determined the productive potential in the Lerma-Toluca Basin under historical (1991-2020) and future (2050 and 2070) scenarios with RCP 4.5 and 8.5. For the scenarios, temperature and precipitation images were generated using the spline interpolation method of the ANUSPLIN package. The productive potential was estimated based on the agroecological requirements of the crop, classifying the territory as high, medium and unsuitable. The results show that, in the current scenario, medium potential predominates (51.8%) over high potential (17.3%). For the future scenarios with RCP 4.5 in 2050, the medium potential increases 0.69% and the high potential 0.43%; in 2070, the medium potential decreases 0.68% and the high potential increases 1.79%. With RCP 8.5 in 2050, the medium potential decreases by 1.4%, and the high potential increases by 2.16%; in 2070, the medium decreases by 14.96%, and the high potential increases by 13.15%, compared to the historical scenario. Climate change will raise the temperature and reduce precipitation, increasing productive potential; however, extreme weather events can affect production, so adaptation strategies are required to face climate risks and guarantee food security.